Expiration Years Are a Portfolio, Not a Set of Player Bets

RSO contracts are individual bets, but expiration years behave like a portfolio. If too many starters reach free agency together, one auction must replace production, absorb new market prices, and use several limited term slots at once.

Start with a three-year map. Count expiring starters, flexible one-year deals, rookie contracts, and contracts that would be costly to cut. Then mark the positions where the league's next auction is likely to offer real supply.

A balanced ladder does not require the same number of expirations every year. It requires a plausible plan for each wave. A contender may accept a larger near-term expiration class, while a younger roster can preserve control and keep one future auction open for a targeted reset.

Before adding another long deal, test the end year as well as the player. Ask which contracts already expire then, which term slot the offer consumes, and what dead-cap risk remains if the role changes. The best bid fits the player and the calendar.